Most of the Surveys being done in Pakistan get somewhat misleading. The people conducting survey miss one important thing, what represents Pakistan and what weight that representation has. The villages and suburban people might not be the one to decide what a country should do, the definitely decide who will rule. Or their votes will decide who gets Islamabad.
(http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20071105&fname=Cover+Story+%28F%29&sid=1) was conducted by the Gallup, here is what they say about their methodology.
Methodology In a snap poll Gallup conducted for Outlook in Pakistan, a total of 1,140 people in Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad were interviewed face to face. The respondents comprised a statistical cross-section of different age and income groups, and educational background. The error margin for a survey of this kind is +5% at 95% confidence level for each of the city results. The entire survey was carried out on October 22-23.
Its good that such a survey was done and atleast they claim of having taken the views of all portions (on basis of age, income and education) of urban population. There are two things missing
- Representation of ‘Serhad’ and Bloachistan
- And the major vote bank that is not present in the cities i.e. villages. many seats are from the villages or towns.
Villager’s voice is most important here. Not only because they are huge constitute large chunk of Pakistan’s population. But because their style of vote is different form urban population. And it will effect the seats people will be able to get.
- Some will be having family seats there which PML Q has in Punjab, PPP has in Sindh,
- some will have sympathy vote from there (which Benazir might get) and
- some will just vote against anyone with Musharaf (going to PML N, Imran or even to MMA, ironic isn’t it buts it politics of Pakistan)
- PML Q will definitely get vote from sub developed areas where their MNA s and the Local Govt. officials have done some work
The psychology of the vote bank in such areas is very different, But THESE NON HEARD VILLAGERS will be the one to decide who wins not urban citizens.
In any case its good that someone did survey. I hope we could survey villages also.